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2024-12-13 04:54:27

Of course, I have to say that the above is just my personal shallow thinking about the market. It is really difficult to judge the trend of the market, especially the current market is in an "abnormal" period. We can see that theoretically, the market should have adjusted today, including the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks and the adjustment of FTSE A50 index, and the market turnover has shrunk dramatically, but we can see that the market index just does not fall. Showing great resilience. It can be seen that the prediction of short-term market trends is actually very difficult and the uncertainty is very high.Why is it so predictable? Three specific reasons:Third, according to my observation, small and micro-cap stocks have now reached the limit point of rising, and the possibility of turning around and turning down is very great. At present, the differentiation between the large market and the small market has also reached the extreme. Recently, we have seen the performance of low-priced stocks is very good, which actually shows that the "bull market in the first stage" has entered the final stage. At the end of the bull market, it is very likely that the weight of the market will rise and rise, and then at the same time, small-cap stocks will continue to adjust.


Second, from the perspective of symmetry. Since the high of 3509 points fell, an obvious downward channel has been formed. And this descending channel is actually possible to be mapped in the current possible band. That is to say, if the current index falls, it is possible to go down at the same angle as the previous falling segment.Let's take a look at the CSI 2000 Index, which represents the trend of small-cap stocks. CSI 2000 Index. At present, it is a typical rising wedge structure. This structure has run to the pressure level of the wedge-shaped upper rail. It has also run to the recent low point. After the low point support line is broken, it becomes the pressure level of the pressure line (the red line in the figure). Therefore, I think that small-cap stocks will actually face greater adjustment pressure tomorrow.


Praise is the greatest support for my pure technical school.Praise is the greatest support for my pure technical school.Statement of the work: Personal opinion, for reference only.

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